Hungary's Greyzone War against Ukraine

Orbán's regime is playing with fire

The revelations by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) about a cell of Hungarian military intelligence operating in the Ukrainian region of Transcarpathia to the detriment of Ukraine raise serious questions about Hungary’s position within Western political and military alliances.

On 9 May, the SBU disclosed that the cell — consisting of two Ukrainian informants and handled by a Hungarian military intelligence officer — was tasked with collecting data on the military security of the Transcarpathia region, including identifying vulnerabilities in its ground and air defences.

The cell was also instructed to assess potential scenarios of how Transcarpathia residents might behave in the event of Hungarian troops entering the region as either a peacekeeping or a Nato force.

The cell was asked other questions as well — for instance, what military equipment or weapons were available on the black market in Transcarpathia, or what the situation was with the region’s ethnic Hungarian population.

Transcarpathia borders Hungary and is home to around 100,000 ethnic Hungarians, who constitute approximately 10 percent of the region’s population.

The cell became active in September 2024, but its main informant had been recruited by Hungarian military intelligence as early as 2021. The cell’s activities and timeline suggest that Hungary’s anti-Ukrainian actions were directly linked to Russia’s war against Ukraine and that Hungary was preparing to extend its political influence into Transcarpathia.

Dreams of a 'Greater Hungary'

Historically, Transcarpathia was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and, after the First World War, was transferred to Czechoslovakia. In March 1939, following the Nazi dismemberment of Czechoslovakia, Hungary — then led by Miklós Horthy and aligned with Nazi Germany — annexed Transcarpathia with Hitler’s tacit approval.

After the fall of the Third Reich, the region became part of Soviet Ukraine in 1945.

Hungarian nationalists, including Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán, regard the loss of Transcarpathia and other territories forfeited after the First World War as a historical injustice. Transcarpathia features prominently in maps and rhetoric promoting the idea of 'Greater Hungary'.

Orbán’s perspective on Transcarpathia as a historically Hungarian land fully aligns with that of Russian president Vladimir Putin, who views Ukraine as an artificial state, claiming that its western regions rightfully belong to Poland, Hungary, and Romania.

In 2008, Putin reportedly proposed to Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, during his visit to Moscow, the idea of dividing Ukraine between Poland and Russia.

In 2014, after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, prominent Russian MP Vladimir Zhirinovsky sent letters to the foreign ministries of Hungary, Poland, and Romania, suggesting the partition of Ukraine and the distribution of its territories among Russia and the three countries.

The recruitment of a Ukrainian informant by Hungarian military intelligence in 2021 occurred against the backdrop of Russia’s active preparations for its war against Ukraine — a war that many Western leaders urged Russia not to launch.

On 1 February 2022, just three weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Orbán visited Moscow and met with Putin. The exact content of their hours-long discussion remains undisclosed, but it reportedly centred on European security and Russia’s growing pressure on Ukraine.

Two days before the Russian invasion, Hungary’s defence ministry announced the deployment of an unspecified number of troops to the Ukrainian border. Officially, the deployment was described as a precautionary step to bolster border security, prevent the entry of armed groups, and manage a potential refugee influx.

Given the SBU’s recent revelations about Hungary’s malign activities, the official justification for this troop movement now appears questionable.

Orbán’s 'peacekeepers'

It may be an overstatement to suggest that the Hungarian military intended to invade Transcarpathia in February 2022 — Hungary’s army is no match for battle-hardened Ukrainian forces.

However, Orbán’s likely objective may have been to fill a potential security void in the region with Hungarian police and 'peacekeepers' had Russia’s “special military operation” succeeded in collapsing the Ukrainian state within days or weeks.

While Orbán would not have risked repeating Horthy’s direct annexation of Transcarpathia in the wake of the Nazi invasion of Czechoslovakia, the underlying idea was likely similar: wait for Ukraine’s collapse, then move into Transcarpathia to secure Hungarian political influence.

It remains unclear why Hungarian military intelligence chose to activate its cell in September 2024, but the move was probably linked to developments in Russia’s war effort.

On the one hand, data on Ukrainian ground and air defences in Transcarpathia would be of little use to the Hungarian army, which lacks the capacity to confront Ukraine militarily. The only actor likely to benefit from such intelligence is Russia.

On the other hand, the Hungarian operation may have been influenced by expectations that the 2024 US presidential election could trigger a domestic crisis in the United States, creating a strategic window for Russia to advance its goals in Ukraine. In such a scenario, Hungarian troops posing as “peacekeepers” could enter Transcarpathia under the pretext of stabilising the region.

By that time, French president Emmanuel Macron had already floated the idea of deploying European peacekeepers to Ukraine should Russia make significant advances into its central regions. Within that context, Orbán’s 'peacekeeping' initiative could appear even legitimate to many naïve observers.

Whatever Hungary’s exact tactic, Ukraine now has concrete evidence that Orbán’s anti-Ukrainian actions extend far beyond merely blocking EU military and financial support or obstructing Ukraine’s path to EU integration.

The scale and nature of Hungary’s intelligence operations make it increasingly plausible that Orbán has been directly colluding with Putin in Russia’s war against Ukraine — and more broadly, against Europe.

A comprehensive investigation, led by the EU or Nato, into this potential collusion is not only justified but urgently necessary.

This article was originally published in EUobserver. Please consider supporting the publication.